Breakfast talk with Mr. Marco Valli, Chief Eurozone Economist at Unicredit
Mr. Marco Valli, Chief Eurozone Economist at Unicredit Developed Countries in good shape as FED and ECB decouple US rates have finally departed from the zero lower bound and 2016 will shed light on the Fed’s reaction function in a post-crisis environment. We expect the rate normalization to continue at a faster pace than priced in by financial markets, but this tightening cycle will remain very shallow compared to those of the past. In the Eurozone, the recovery is set to gain traction, powered mainly by domestic demand, which should make up for a still difficult external environment. However, the upward trend in core inflation remains painfully slow, and headline inflation will continue to significantly undershoot the ECB’s target for the foreseeable future. More monetary easing is a distinct possibility. Political risk is a key variable to monitor across Europe: we explain what is concerning, and what is not. In the global landscape, China will remain an important source of volatility, but the short-term macro outlook is not as bad as financial markets seem to think. The recovery in developed countries is unlikely to be derailed. About the speaker Marco Valli has responsibility for the bank’s view on the euro area economy and ECB policy. Before being appointed Chief Eurozone Economist, Marco covered the position of Chief Italian Economist from 2006 until mid-2010. Marco’s analyses and comments are often quoted on financial media like the FT and Bloomberg. Prior to joining UniCredit in 2004, Marco worked as European Economist in the asset allocation department of Fideuram SGR. Marco holds a degree in Economics at Bocconi University (Milan, 2000), and a master degree in Quantitative Finance (Bocconi, 2002). Marco co-authored the study “Global Inflation – The Ghost in the Machine?” which was awarded the Rybczynski Prize for the best piece of business economics writing in 2007 by the Society of Business Economists.