South-east Asia rides fourth wave of regional growth

The US-China trade war is over, runs an often-made joke in Singapore. “And the winner is Vietnam.”

Actually, the war shows little sign of easing, even as the combatants reel from the coronavirus, but the punchline still captures an important truth.

For a decade all eyes were on China but now the focus of global growth is shifting towards south-east Asia, a patchwork of 10 nations and nearly 700m people to the south of China and east of India. If every region has a moment when the stars align — economically, demographically, geopolitically — then south-east Asia’s may be now.

With rapid urbanisation and industrialisation, a young demographic, sweeping digitisation, growing access to education and rising female empowerment, south-east Asia is poised to acquire a new standing in the world.

Largely this is because it can build on its neighbours’ successes, thanks to Asia’s postwar history as one of mutually reinforcing growth waves.

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